The long-term or strategic plan focuses on Pro Forma Statements of Income prepared for
annual periods three to five years into the future. You may be asking yourself, "How
can I possibly predict what will affect my business that far into the future?"
Granted, it's hard to imagine all the variables that will affect your business in the next
year, let alone the next three to five years. The key, however, is control - control of
your business's future course of expansion through the use of the financial tools
explained in this section.
First determine a rate of growth that is desirable and reasonably attainable. Then
employ Pro Formas and Cash Flow Budgets to calculate the capital required to finance the
inventory, plant, equipment, and personnel needs necessary to attain that growth in sales
volume. The business owner/manager must anticipate capital needs in time to make
satisfactory arrangements for outside funds if internally generated funds from retained
earnings are insufficient.
Growth can be funded in only two ways: with profits or by borrowing. If expansion
outstrips the capital available to support higher levels of accounts receivable,
inventory, fixed assets, and operating expenses, a business's development will be slowed
or stopped entirely by its failure to meet debts as they become payable. Such insolvency
will result in the business’s assets being liquidated to meet the demands of the
creditors. The only way to avoid this "outstripping of capital" is by planning
to control growth. Growth must be understood to be controlled. This understanding requires
knowledge of past financial performance and of the future requirements of the business.
These needs must be forecast in writing - using the Pro Forma Income Statement in
particular - for three to five years in the future. After projecting reasonable sales
volumes and profitability, use the Cash Flow Budget to determine (on a quarterly basis for
the next three to five years) how these projected sales volumes translate into the flow of
cash in and out of the business during normal operations. Where additional inventory,
equipment, or other physical assets are necessary to support the sales forecast, you must
determine whether or not the business will generate enough profit to sustain the growth
forecast.
Often, businesses simply grow too rapidly for internally generated cash to sufficiently
support the growth. If profits are inadequate to carry the growth forecast, the
owner/manager must either make arrangements for working growth capital to borrowed, or
slow growth to allow internal cash to "catch up" and keep pace with the
expansion. Because arranging financing and obtaining additional equity capital takes time,
this need must be anticipated well in advance to avoid business interruption.
To develop effective long-term plans, you should do the following steps:
1. Determine your personal objectives and how they affect your willingness and
ability to pursue financial goals for your business. This consideration, often
overlooked, will help you determine whether or not your business goals fit your personal
plans. For example, suppose you hope to become a millionaire by age 45 through your
business but your long-term strategic plan reveals that only modest sales growth and very
slim profit margins on that volume are attainable in your industry. You must either adjust
your personal goals or get into a different business. Long range planning enables you to
be realistic about the future of your personal and business expectations.
2. Set goals and objectives for the company (growth rates, return on investment, and
direction as the business expands and matures). Express these goals in specific
numbers, for example, sales growth of 10 percent a year, increases in gross and net profit
margins of 2 to 3 percent a year, a return on investment of not less than 9 to 10 percent
a year. Use these long-range plans to develop forecasts of sales and profitability and
compare actual results from operations to these forecasts. If after these goals are
established actual performance continuously falls short of target, the wise business owner
will reassess both the realism of expectations and the desirability of continuing to
pursue the enterprise.
3. Develop long-range plans that enable you to attain your goals and objectives.
Focus on the strengths and weaknesses of your business and on internal and external
factors that will affect the accomplishment of your goals. Develop strategies based upon
careful analysis of all relevant factors (pricing strategies, market potential,
competition, cost of borrowed and equity capital as compared to using only profits for
expansions, etc.) to provide direction for the future of your business.
4. Focus on the financial, human, and physical requirements necessary to fulfill
your plan by developing forecasts of sales, expenses, and retain earnings over the next
three to five years.
5. Study methods of operation, product mix, new market opportunities, and other such
factors to help identify ways to improve your company's productivity and profitability.
6. Revise, revise. Always use your most recent financial statements to adjust your
short- and long-term plans. Compare your company's financial performance regularly with
current industry data to determine how your results compare with others in your industry.
Learn where your business may have performance weaknesses. Don't be afraid to modify your
plans if your expectations have been either too aggressive or too conservative.
